M’s First Forray Outside Division
Positive Chemistry Leads to Successful Start
Timely Bats Aid Great Rotation
As the first half of April is in the books, we can take a step back after a needed off-day at home and reflect. Few teams have opened a season with as much travel as the Seattle Mariners, and now they can put that all behind them. Several players have started slow, like Smoak, though his two HR’s are not without notice. But if we look down the roster, not a single everyday starter is hitting above .289. And as we might have guessed; Ichiro, Montero, Ackley and Seager are leading the way.
The M’s formula for winning has changed very little in these last two seasons, and this year it is evident, that the strength of the starting rotation is key. Everyday the M’s take the field, they have a chance to win, so if this core of hitters can continue their consistency, and if this offense sees even marginal improvement from the likes of Smoak, Ryan and Olivo, then the arrival of Gutierrez and Carp from the DL may keep this team on the heels of mighty Texas through the first half.
However, for this team to compete, Jack Z needs to make some moves early in the summer. We’ve seen how this formula plays out these last two seasons, hang tight early and fade in August. Fortunately, opportunities are a plenty for Z. With the depth in pitching, don’t be surprised if rumors begin early surrounding Vargas, with Millwood to follow. Z has two starters already on the roster in Furbush and Iwakuma, with more arms eager to prove themselves on the farm, so finding some talent to supplement the offense is imperative.
M’s Learning From Tokyo
Two-Thirds of Outfield on DL
Poor Offensive Showing
Bullpen Blows a Win
For a team that needed to get off to a fast start, the 2012 Seattle Mariners have done anything but. Losing Franklin Gutierrez and Adam Moore in Peoria, and then Mike Carp in Tokyo, the M’s find out quickly how thin their offense has grown. After finishing last season with one of the worst offensive outputs in MLB history and losing 100+ games in two of the last four years, this is a team that could ill afford to stumble out of the gate.
The Jack Zduernick era in Seattle is not known for teams that play well from behind. Their formula for winning has been to get a couple of runs early, and hang on for dear life. As such, any hope for keeping competitive in the tough AL West hinges on keeping pace early, while fighting tooth and nail to stay in the race. Although getting a split in a two game series is never a failure, the M’s lost a chance to get a step up when it was there for the taking.
Failing to support an outstanding performance by their starting pitcher has become the hallmark of this Jack Z built team. In three years marked by turmoil, negativity and drama, Mariner fans and Seattle Media cling to the warm fuzzy image that Z sells of himself and the club. Reality however, is another matter. The midseason firing of Wakamatsu because Front Office pressure favored an over-the-hill Griffey (who snuck out-of-town in the dead of night) foretold a flawed pattern of decision-making that follows the team to this day.
First comes the trade of Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley. Z could have cut bait and moved the M’s a step closer to the future that he envisioned. Instead, he tried to salvage a bad situation, and made it worse by assuming Bradley. Although he reduced the dollar amount that payroll had to swallow, he strung the process through the better part of two seasons and stunted the development of his offense, and his outfield.
Then comes the unspeakable actions of Jack Wilson, quitting on his team and the organization. Wilson was one of few high-profile acquisitions, the signature move of Z’s early tenure. A dedication to supreme defense with little regard for offensive contribution. Yet less than a full season later, the reliable Wilson is suddenly considered a cancer and jettison from the club like flotsam.
The result of this turmoil? A team that hit .233, dead last in the AL , this after hitting .236 the year before, also dead last. One has to go back to 1888 to find such poor offensive consistency. With two starting pitchers finishing 1-2 in worst run support (Fister, Vargas), Z needed to make enough moves during the off-season to effect a culture change at the plate.
In spite of the overwhelming failures, Z continues making decisions using the same flawed process. Failing to address a string of positions with offensive liabilities over the winter, Z now enters his 4th season with a handful of dead weights after spending so much of the team’s resources to improve the lineup.
Exhibit one is Figgins. Z’s first and only big name offensive free agent. A player that no other team wanted. A player that was brought in to upgrade the bat of Adrian Beltre while maintaining a solid glove at the hot corner. Three years into the Figgins move, there is nary a more despised pro athlete in Seattle sports. Brian Bosworth and Alex Rodriguez would seem threatened if it were not for the overwhelming apathy that earmarks Z’s tenure.
Instead of dumping Figgins and moving on toward a future of outstanding third base prospects, Z instead creates a log jam at the position and allows Figgy to infect a third season on a club that is supposed to built around youth and excitement. Z’s desire to squeeze every dollar out of a clear mistake is a move that not only harkens Silva, but clearly defines his priorities. Paying lip service to winning is Z’s motto, but his moves and his actions say something entirely different.
When Z assumed the job of GM, his calling card was an eye for talent, a scout’s scout. If true, then it sure doesn’t show on his roster. Instead of making decisions that recognize talent, Z is more interested in keeping submissive poster boys that will play for the league minimum and refrain from comments critical of the administration. No where is that more evident than Micheal Saunders. Any talent scout could have told you two seasons ago that Saunders would never be big league material, yet here Z is entering this all important 4th season, and his opening day starter at centerfield is a player that not only can’t hit the Mendoza Line, but a player that if were not for the M’s, would have no other offers for even AAA positions.
With three seasons of baggage and an ocean of denial, the M’s return from Japan to sell their fans on the hopes of a young team that is finding its way. Yet in the midst of this young team, they still carry a shortstop in Brendan Ryan that brings more problems at the plate than solutions in the field, and a catcher that can’t catch and can barely hit. Coupled with Figgins and Saunders, 4 out of 9 positions in the lineup are pure dead weight and yet the Seattle Media continue to praise Z for moving the club in the right direction. If Z has this team moving the right direction, how would it look otherwise?
In baseball, the smallest corrections can lead to the biggest improvements. For all the ills and bad decision-making inherent in the Z era, the M’s return home from Japan with an opportunity to make some good choices and salvage their start. But they have to move quick. None of the options are without risk, yet risk is the one characteristic that Z avoids at all costs. Without taking on some of that calculated risk now, this pattern of decision-making is certain to yield the same results.
Mariners Live
A couple of early observations
Brenden Ryan hits in front of the runner in the 3rd, and Saunders gives him the assist on the fielders choice with his base running blunder, getting tossed out at 3B. Then in the 5th Saunders hits into a double play, followed by Ryan grounding out on the first pitch to end the inning. Olivo, Saunders, Ryan and Figgins in this line up is a rally waiting to die. Not even a full game in the books and it’s already evident that some bad decisions have been made on this roster.
Throw in Mike Carp’s play in left, he’s not exactly All-Star material out there. Small range, getting tagged on a fly by a runner going to 3rd is an insult. Coupled with Saunders equally limited range, the M’s give up more defense in the outfield with the least amount of offensive compensation as any team I’ve seen.
Give Felix credit for keeping this game tight.
Nice job by Carp intake 9th with the glove.
Extra innings here we go,
Give Ryan credit for clutch.. Lead off double in the 11th.
Nice bunt Figgins.
Ackley is the new leader of this team. RBI in the 11th
Mariner history with Ichiro getting his 4th hit on Opening Day. ties Griffey Jr.
League in to close the win in the 11th
Casper Wells nice job replacing Carp in left.
Mariners win 3-1 in 11
T-Dub gets the win.
Like this:
The Tokyo Effect
Opening Morning Mariners vs A’s @ 3AM Pacific Time ROOT Sports
Kawasaki, Ramirez Earn Spots on 25 Man Roster
Team Building Intangibles Bode Well for 2012 Mariner Campaign
When the M’s and A’s get together very early tomorrow morning, both clubs will be embarking on a season in which very few prognosticators give them any chance at all of success. In the tough AL West, Texas appears stronger while the Angels have added Albert Pujols. Both of these clubs feature solid pitching and great defense over the past few seasons, while their bats continue to beat up on pitching all summer long. So how can lowly Seattle and Oakland bear to compete?
The intangible team building effect of this Opening Day in Japan can pull a team either direction. The travel and return home to face further Spring Training games could be a let down and lead to a slow start. Or, this could be the one event that catapults a young roster to mature and galvanize.
With Ichiro, Kawasaki, and Iwakuma on the big league club, the Mariners experience in Japan has been overwhelmingly positive. Forget the result of the two exhibition games, the M’s have glown in the light of celebrity and are poised to turn this hand-picked group of wannabes into somebodys. Names like Smoak, Carp, Montero, Saunders and Ackley; young kids with all the talent any GM could dream of are primed to make their mark on this team and this season. Don’t tell any of them that the AL West is a foregone conclusion.
While the bats enter this season under a microscope, the forgotten pitching staff of the Seattle Mariners is so good, that it’s become an after thought. For a team that traded away Michael Pineda and Doug Fister, it’s hard to imagine getting better. Yet that’s what they’ve done. Without making any major splash in free agency, the M’s have quietly assembled the Phalanx rotation of BB throwers led by King Felix Hernandez and anchored by Dominican phenom Hector Noesi. With the veteran Kevin Millwood back to form, the ever steady Jason Vargas and the young stud Blake Beavan, opposing offenses will not find a single easy night against this rotation.
Don’t look now, but the 2012 Seattle Mariners are coming to give headaches to an American League team near you. They are fast, aggressive and can win most games with only three runs, so don’t look past these kids or you just might regret it.
Like this:
Mariner Lineup Vol. 2
What Should Be
M’s Have 25 Players in Camp They Can Win With Now
One thing Mariner fans have come to learn about Jackie Z is that he’s committed to rebuilding his way, no matter how long it takes. Patience is a virtue not in short supply in the Mariner Front Office, and Z’s history tells us that he likes to build his team like a nice Cabernet, let it breathe and don’t rush it.
What if I told you, there was no more time. What if Mariner Nation didn’t have another year or two. What if the 2012 baseball season were the last season ever, and the only chance Seattle had of becoming world champions was now or never? Would you believe me if I told you that right now, the team Jackie Z has in camp is talented enough to win the World Series this year? Some say that we should live everyday as though it’s our last, so why would we run a baseball team any different?
Forget for a moment any trade possibilities. Ignore the constant threat of injury. Look if you will at the group of ball players amassed in Peoria and you will see that Z’s work is done. The 2012 Seattle Mariners can win the AL West and defeat any team in baseball in a seven game series exactly as they are. There is only one trick; they must choose the right 25 guys.
This team is not deep by any stretch of the imagination, and to win the AL West outright, every single win will count, starting day one in Tokyo. So to win the West, the M’s must do something they have yet to do in the Jackie Z era, they must go all in, and to do it they don’t need to change a thing.
For Volume 2 of the Seattle Mariner Lineup Series, we will look at the offensive lineup; not how it is, but how it should be. In the following volumes we will break down our pitching staff and round out the 25 man roster. If you’re ready Mariner Nation, and if Z has the cojones to make the call, I believe we are ready to launch a season that will turn baseball on its head.
The 2012 Seattle Mariner Opening Day Lineup, The Way it Should Be:
Munenori Kawasaki SS
Kawasaki is the leadoff hitter that Wedge is looking for. The 5-Time Japanese All-Star is in the prime of his career. His glove is every bit as good, if not better than Brendan Ryan, and his potential as a career .300 hitter is exactly what this run starved roster needs to get turned around.
Dustin Ackley 2B
Not only is Ackley the classic 2-hole hitter, but give him a speedy leadoff guy like Kawasaki, and Ackley will surprise everybody with his RBI production.
Ichiro RF
Although most fans of the American League do not see Ichiro as the prototypical 3-hole hitter like an A-Rod or Jose Canseco used to be, he certainly has the ability do it his way. Throughout his career, Ichiro has constantly battled perception and won. This year will be no different.
Justin Smoak 1B
Like most championship clubs throughout history, the first baseman has been the driver behind the run production. Greats like Lou Gehrig, Mark McGwire, Steve Garvey, Tony Perez and Albert Pujols have all represented the water cooler well. Justin Smoak is cut from the same cloth as these men, and this is the year he answers the call.
Jesus Montero C
No one doubts the bat that Montero brings, but for the Mariners to have any shot, this kid needs to field his position as well. Having Montero catch rather than DH is one of the keys to making this roster work. It pulls Olivo’s dead bat out of the lineup and gives another bat the opportunity to fill the everyday DH role. From what we’ve seen so far, Montero is better defensively than he was billed, and although Olivo brings a certain toughness, no one has ever offered him a Gold Glove.
Carlos Peguero DH
Coming up through the system as an outfielder, Peguero has shown that his defense is like a lot of other great hitters in our era, not so good. Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, and the list continues. Peguero is exactly what the M’s have not done with the DH position. Using it primarily as a day-off tool to rest defensive oriented players, the lack of a power hitting DH is one reason the M’s offense has been such a joke. Peguero’s growth is evident this spring as he’s cut back on his strike outs. He has rare power, and given the chance he’s ready to bring it everyday.
Mike Carp CF
Most mock lineups I’ve seen have Carp batting higher, and considering that those lineups also have Figgins, Olivo and Ryan in them it is no wonder. However, if the Mariners are to be a championship caliber club, they need a lineup so solid that the 7-8-9 hitters are rocking the plate too. In 1988-90 the Oakland A’s bottom of the order featured guys like Walt Weiss, Tony Phillips, Terry Steinbach, Carney Lansford, Willie McGee, Mike Gallego, and Harold Baines. LaRussa had a lot more depth than the M’s have ever had, giving him a chance to tinker with the pieces. Any of these guys would bat in the top three of Mariner rosters over the last several seasons. Carp’s in good company, and if he hits the way he did last summer, he’ll become a valuable piece to this team.
Kyle Seager 3B
There is nothing this kid’s done to keep him from earning the job. He’s out-hit, and out-fielded the third base competition thus far in Spring Training. With his solid college background, and his sensational play in the minors, Seager proved last summer that he was ready for the big leagues. With an offseason of work under his belt, he looks every bit the third base slugger that all GM’s dream of.
Vinnie Catricala LF
Talk about earning a spot on a roster. Some would say that Vinnie’s a true 3rd baseman, but his roots are in the outfield. The M’s have not been grooming him for this role, so it is no stretch to think that Z will start him in the minors. But if the Mariners are all in to win the AL West in 2012, then they aren’t going to do it without taking a few risks. For me, this is the risk I see as most important and least likely to happen. This is the move that goes against every ounce of what Z is trying to do. Z has said from the beginning that he is going to build around pitching and defense. That’s great if you’re riding with The Slowskys, but if you want to win now, you’ll build around hitting, and you’ll find a place in the field for guys that can hit. It starts here by moving Carp to Center and Catricala to Left.
If we see this lineup Mariner Nation, we’ll know for sure that Jackie Z wants to win now. If we don’t we’ll know that Z is more concerned about contracts and payroll. We’ll also know that he’ll be out there making the media rounds in June, asking us all for our patience. However the time is now, put a winning offense at the plate, and watch how quickly fans fill The Safe.
Mariner Lineup
What Is and What Should Be Vol. 1
It’s no surprise to Mariner fans, that the roster hitting the field on opening day will be very different from the roster that belongs in a Mariner uniform. This season opens with a bit of house cleaning for Jackie Z, matched with understandable caution for Montero, and one final gasp for Saunders to keep his head afloat.
Wedge’s Lineup Card Will Look Like This:
Chone Figgins 3B
Wedge has said all along that Figgins is hitting leadoff, and Z will showcase Figgins’ trade value at every opportunity.
Dustin Ackley 2B
The biggest no brainer on the team. Dustin’s a classic 2-hole hitter. He can hit for average, pepper in a dose of line-drive power, and he’s got a great eye for the strike zone. This will enable Wedge to put the game in motion early and keep the K’s to a minimum.
Ichiro RF
As spring winds down, all the doubt over Ichiro hitting third has fizzled. He remains the best hitter on the team and stands to produce the highest RBI totals of his career.
Justin Smoak 1B
When Z traded Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak, it’s because this team needed a true clean-up hitter. Poised and ready for 2012, don’t be surprised if Smoak’s putting up All-Star numbers at the break.
Jesus Montero DH
Nobody in the Mariner organization wants to see a Buster Posey like disaster with Montero, so caution is the word here. Wedge will give him his shots behind the plate, but we should expect him in the DH role 4 out of 5 games. Montero may one day assume Ichiro’s role as the number 3 hitter in the lineup, just not this year.
Mike Carp LF
A versatile fielder and hitter, Carp has finally arrived as a true starter and not just a late season call-up. Great teams need great hitters in the 6 hole with power and average to back up their big men. This crucial position keeps pitchers honest, and makes them pay when they are not.
Miguel Olivo C
Olivo is the Tarvaris Jackson of the Mariners, one of the toughest grittiest players in the game at any position. His face-first defense sets a tone for this club. However, his bat is a liability if the M’s want to compete for an AL West title. Timely home runs help, but Olivo needs to increase his On-Base Percentage if the worst offense is to make a substantial improvement.
Michael Saunders CF
No other club in the American League would have kept Saunders for so long. He’s been given more chances to prove he belongs than Houdini. Coming off a great spring, Saunders has earned this opportunity, yet his prior performance has proven that his talent belongs in the National League where he can succeed for the long run.
Brendan Ryan SS
With a top-notch glove, the Shortstop job is almost an entitlement to him. Nevertheless, his bat is another in a long line of liabilities. Ryan is better suited as a utility defensive contributor with limited plate appearances.
The Mariners’ Mean Business
Howard Lincoln Builds Culture of Losing
Projected $86M Harkens 2006
Two Consecutive Years Seattle Payroll Not in Top 10
TV Contract Opt-Out Option for 2015 Spells Doom for AL West Hopes
Seattle Mariner fans have a habit of saying “If this happens…”. If Ichiro gets back to being himself. If Franklin Gutierrez comes back healthy. If Smoak lives up to his potential. If Figgins gets back to his All-Star form. If Montero lives up to his asking price. If Kawasaki can hit MLB pitching. If Carp can mature into an everyday middle of the lineup hitter. If, if, if, if, if 7 of 9 positions do something they have yet to do, then the Seattle Mariners will be left with a starting catcher that can’t hit for average and a 2nd baseman that’s yet to play a full season.
We don’t need a lesson in PECOTA averages to see that even IF all of these ifs come true, the Mariners are still a longshot at winning the tough AL West in 2012. Unfortunately, Spring Training is no time of hope for Seattle. This is a year of acknowledged rebuilding, a year of clearing contracts and getting playing time for the prospects of our future. For the diehard faithful, a trip to Safeco now means that in 2015 you’ll be able to say, “I was there when these guys were kids.” But what does it mean to the fan that is exhausted from ten years of losing?
Jackie Z keeps telling fans to wait, that we are building this team the right way, and when we’re done, we’ll win for a long time. Yet, his long time doesn’t really begin until 2015 when the M’s stand to bring a true windfall of TV revenue. So this means our 10 years of missing the playoffs is going to be extended another 3 years.
Let me see if I get this straight, the plan is to go 13 years without making the playoffs, so we can begin an era of winning? And if this plan succeeds, how many years will this winning era last? 5 or 6? How many fans would knowingly trade 13 years of ineptitude for 5 good ones? In Seattle, you’ll get a response, but would you in New York or Boston? Chicago, Detroit? Miami or Los Angeles? Philadelphia or St. Louis? How long will Seattle fans continue to let their ownership treat them like the laughingstock of the sporting world?
In Yankee Stadium there is a sign that every player walks past on his way from the clubhouse to the field. That sign says, “Thank God I’m a Yankee.” Will there ever come a day when MLB players say the same about being a Mariner? Certainly not in the next three years they won’t.
The representative of Mariner ownership, Howard Lincoln, is downright mean in the way he treats his customers. By creating a business plan that gives no hope of winning, he is dashing the hopes of every young boy in Seattle that dreams of growing up to play baseball. He is creating a culture of losing. In creating this culture, he makes it that much more difficult to turn the tables when the M’s negotiate that contract in 2015. In fact I would ask, does the windfall that the contract will bring guarantee winning? Of course not, in fact a betting man would say that even with this new contract, the M’s will have set the gold standard for losing and will enter 2015-2016 with as many ifs as they have right now, 7 of 9.
A lot can happen in three years, a lot can happen in one baseball season. With a tradition of outstanding pitching in Seattle, Howard Lincoln and Jackie Z have the easiest job in all of baseball, build a winning offense. That’s all, just build one half of a team. The other half is rock solid. The M’s already have a new stadium, they already have an incredibly loyal fan base, and all they have to do to compete for an AL West title this season, is put an offense on the field that can hit. The pitching staff can take care of itself. If they continue to field the worst offense in history, they will wear down their pitchers and by the time 2015 arrives, they’ll be re-building both halves.
Like this:
To Yips or Not To Yips?
Focal Dystonia Nothing New to MLB
Is Hong-Chih Kuo Getting Botox Treatments?
Yips a Psychological Anxiety Disorder, or a Medical Condition?
What makes Jack Zduriencik think he can do what no other GM in baseball has done before? Why does Jack think he can cure the Yips? No doubt that Kuo has the potential to dominate batters at the Major League level, but if he overcomes the Yips, he’ll be the first.
We all know stories like Chuck Knoblauch and Rick Ankiel, and many people like to point to Ankiel as a sign of success against the Yips. But did Ankiel beat the Yips, or just sneak around them?
The Yips, known medically as Focal Dystonia, is an incurable medical condition with limited treatments. It has long been considered a type of anxiety disorder, a psychological imbalance like some sort of a mental block that keeps a person from doing what they should easily be able to do. When Knoblauch suddenly was unable to through the ball from second to first on a routine grounder, it was assumed by many that the stress of success created a mental block that he could not overcome. If that were the case, then why was he fine at the plate when it was time to hit?
The same can be asked of Ankiel, if the problem were a mental block, then why could he step up to the plate and hit? Why could he throw a ball from the outfield to a cut-off man just fine, when he could not throw a strike to save his life?
Simply put, the Yips are not an anxiety disorder, they are a nerve condition that causes the muscles to contract contrary to the fine motor movement they’ve been conditioned to perform. The Yips are most common in left-handers like Kuo, and they can be incredibly frustrating for any individual facing them.
We know the precise repetition that a pitcher goes through in his mechanics, and with Yips, microscopic involuntary contractions in muscles affecting the mechanics causes the end result of a ball flying wildly away from its mark. Players affected by this try a lot of things to get past it, and most of them eventually seek the aid of a sports psychologist.
Treating the Yips like an anxiety disorder is of little value though, because it’s not a problem that players can think away. An emerging treatment with temporary effectiveness is Botox. By injecting the antagonistic muscles with Botox and allowing them to stay relaxed, suddenly a player can regain fine motor control. But results from Botox are only temporary. What Jack Z has not said in any of his discussions concerning Kuo, is whether or not he is receiving treatments.
With a guaranteed $1M contract on the line, the Mariners need to decide before spring breaks, if Kuo is a safe risk or not. What Kuo needs to decide before spring breaks, is if the risk of Botox is worth one big M. For all we know, Kuo’s already made up his mind.
Mariners Excited About New Arena
$500m NBA/NHL Arena in South Sodo Need Tenants Before Shovel
Mayor Sends Plan to Citizen Review Board for Oversight
Safeco Getting a New Neighbor
Press Conference at the Mayor’s Office Tomorrow 2PM
NBA/NHL Arena Deal Imminent
Kings and Coyotes to Relocate?
Viva Seattle Kings!
Front Office
